The best laid plans of mice and Treasurers

Where did our national surplus go? Just months ago in Australia we were being assured that the nation was “back in black”. What’s more, there was a clear plan to prove that this was the case – otherwise known as the 19/20 Budget.

So what happened? As I write, governments around the world are scrambling to respond to the burgeoning COVID19 ‘crisis’. In Australia this comes on the back of a horror season of drought and bushfire and flood. Together these shocks have put the budget in the shredder as state and federal governments are forced to loosen the purse strings.

So why am I writing about this? I’ve been reflecting on our collective obsession with ‘the plan’. More specifically, our tendency to expect someone else – typically government – to have the plan and, by extension, the solution to our problems. Governments get caught in the trap too and can’t resist behaving as though their plan is the answer

But if the plan is the answer, where has our surplus gone?

Obviously the series of unpredictable events has made the budget redundant. But that is my point. Running a nation is complex and getting more so every day as global connections deepen. It is always going to be complex, meaning that all plans – all budgets – are at constant risk of disruption.

I’m not suggesting that we shouldn’t create national budgets and do our best to stick to them. I am suggesting that our at times irrational belief in THE PLAN has consequences:

1. Those who create and own the plan are motivated to defend it at all costs and find it difficult to change course.
2. Those who didn’t create it find it easy to criticise the plan and its authors.
3. They also absolve themselves of any responsibility for delivering the plan: “it’s the government’s budget. What are they going to do about it”.
4. We all get despondent and disappointed when the plan doesn’t work as we thought it would. Let the blame game begin.

To avoid the worst of these consequences when facing complex situations, I suggest we get better at identifying aspirational targets that we can all get behind. Rather than focussing our energies on the plan – which is always at risk – let’s get behind an aspiration that motivates and inspires us together. Even if our plans change along the way the ‘light on the hill’ gives us our sense of shared destination.

What sort of aspiration for our economy could we all get behind? And what part in achieving that could I then be motivated to play?

Similarly, are you facing complexity? What is the shared target you and your team are working towards?